Despite President-elect Trump's vow to protect TikTok from a U.S. ban, analysts warn of a challenging legal path ahead. Key decisions by the Supreme Court and Trump’s potential actions could determine TikTok’s future in the U.S.

Although President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to protect TikTok from a U.S. ban, analysts warn that he may face a tough road ahead.

TD Cowen analyst Paul Gallant pointed out in a recent report on Monday that in terms of protecting TikTok from a U.S. ban, the incoming president may need to take some "clever measures."

He noted, "If the Supreme Court upholds the ban, then it will be up to Trump. If he insists on fulfilling his promise to resolve the TikTok issue, he will have to take some legal maneuvers to achieve this goal."

"My guess is that Trump will try to orchestrate what looks like a divestiture deal and announce that this is the end of the story, allowing TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. In that case, Trump could be seen as the hero who saved TikTok," he wrote.

However, the analyst also acknowledged that divesting TikTok is easier said than done.

"Divesting TikTok from ByteDance is very difficult, and may even be impossible. The two companies are closely connected in terms of technology and personnel. There's also the political consideration—whether Trump can force enough separation between the two companies to avoid being criticized for weakness," he wrote.

Gallant also added that it is still impossible to predict what the Supreme Court will do.

TikTok "Stalling"

For context, the U.S. Federal Appeals Court had previously ordered TikTok's parent company ByteDance to divest TikTok by January 19, or face a ban. Last Friday, the three judges of the U.S. Appeals Court ruled to uphold this order.

However, TikTok filed an emergency motion on Monday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, requesting a delay in the order's implementation until the Supreme Court hears its appeal. According to documents submitted by the company to the court, TikTok has over 170 million monthly active users in the U.S.

The document stated that TikTok asked the appellate court to make a decision on the request by December 16. It also emphasized that there is a high likelihood that the Supreme Court will take up the case and overturn the ruling, and therefore, there is good reason to temporarily halt the order to allow time for further consideration.

The company warned that without a court injunction, the TikTok ban would take effect and lead to "TikTok being shut down just before the U.S. presidential inauguration (on January 20)."

Trump's Position

In fact, Trump had tried to ban TikTok during his first term, but he changed his stance during his campaign this year, claiming he would no longer seek to ban TikTok and vowing to "save" the app. It is still unclear what measures Trump will take after taking office to "save" TikTok.

Last weekend, he emphasized on a show, "I've used TikTok, so I can't really, you know, I can't completely hate it. It's really useful. If TikTok gets banned, something else will come along to take its place. Maybe that's not fair."

When asked if he would protect TikTok after taking office, he replied, "I will try to do that, so that other companies don't become a bigger monopoly."

Earlier, some media outlets reported that Trump might ask the Justice Department to drop the enforcement of the law. But analysts pointed out that prosecutorial discretion or executive orders cannot override existing laws, which would limit Trump's ability to take unilateral action.

Additionally, Trump could choose to urge Congress to repeal the law, but this would require support from congressional Republicans, who generally support divesting TikTok.

John Moolenaar, the Republican chairman of the House "China Task Force," said on December 6 that he believes Trump will "facilitate the U.S. takeover of TikTok."

Robert Kaminski, an analyst at research and forecasting firm Capital Alpha Partners, stated, "The two key factors that will decide the fate of this app are the Supreme Court and President Trump. Our expectation is that the Supreme Court will take up the case and issue a stay order."